Will Ukraine’s Refugees Go Home?

About 15 percent of the population has fled Ukraine since the start of Russian aggression in February 2022. Almost 4 million Ukrainians have already registered in the European Union. Based in part on evidence that few refugees voluntarily return to poor countries after settling in rich countries, even after security is restored in their homeland, it is likely that a large number of Ukrainian refugees will remain in European host countries. Others are likely to join, including many men who stayed behind to fight, when the conflict ends.

Ukraine already has a long history of emigration. Its devastated economy, the likelihood of protracted conflict, and considerable uncertainty about final status strengthen the argument that most refugees will not return and many more will join them. EU countries should be prepared for this. Ukrainian immigration in Europe will have large short-term costs and long-term economic benefits. The best way to help Ukraine and mitigate the likely outflow of its population would be to help rebuild the country, not to create artificial barriers to immigration for people who have already suffered greatly.

Source: https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/will-ukraines-refugees-go-home